64-Team World Cup Simulator
Pot 1 & ranking points

Brazil 1854

Belgium 1845

France 1814

Italy 1768

Argentina 1751

England 1745

Spain 1709

Netherlands 1692

Switzerland 1671

Portugal 1664

Denmark 1647

Germany 1645

USA 1636

Croatia 1633

Sweden 1617

Mexico 1598
Pot 2 & ranking points

Uruguay 1594

Colombia 1575

Wales 1574

Japan 1561

Senegal 1560

Serbia 1559

Algeria 1544

Poland 1540

Austria 1538

Australia 1535

Chile 1532

Iran 1528

Czech Republic 1523

Peru 1522

Morocco 1519

Russia 1505
Pot 3 & ranking points

Hungary 1504

Tunisia 1503

Rep. of Ireland 1490

Nigeria 1489

Korea Rep. 1486

Qatar 1486

Jamaica 1473

Costa Rica 1472

Saudi Arabia 1471

Turkey 1471

Canada 1463

Cameroon 1462

Egypt 1458

Ghana 1457

Mali 1450

Venezuela 1447
Pot 4 & ranking points

Northern Ireland 1446

Burkina Faso 1409

Slovenia 1392

Panama 1389

Iraq 1387

UAE 1385

Bolivia 1373

El Salvador 1359

Curaçao 1339

Lebanon 1288

Bahrain 1273

Kyrgyz Republic 1260

Guinea-Bissau 1209

Equatorial Guinea 1198

Philippines 1155

Vanuatu 1050
Pot 1 & ranking points

Belgium 1858

Brazil 1831

France 1830

Italy 1784

Argentina 1769

England 1761

Spain 1705

Germany 1667
Pot 2 & ranking points

Portugal 1660

Denmark 1649

Sweden 1645

USA 1636

Mexico 1589

Colombia 1582

Algeria 1582

Uruguay 1574
Pot 3 & ranking points

Japan 1558

Peru 1557

Chile 1555

Senegal 1554

Iran 1548

Serbia 1547

Austria 1536

Australia 1531
Pot 4 & ranking points

Morocco 1527

Tunisia 1506

Ghana 1484

Costa Rica 1477

Mali 1464

Iraq 1435

Slovenia 1427

Lebanon 1306

England def.

Uruguay

Slovenia def.

Iraq

Spain def.

Sweden

Italy def.

Belgium

France def.

USA

Portugal def.

Germany

Argentina def.

Mexico

Tunisia def.

Colombia

England def.

Slovenia

Spain def.

Italy

Portugal def.

France

Argentina def.

Tunisia

Spain def.

England

Argentina def.

Portugal

Argentina def.

Spain
This simulates a potential 64-team World Cup, which I developed because the 2026 World Cup format is so terrible. It assumes the World Cup could be expanded by having a winter-summer competition with the first competition being a round of 64 where the top two teams in each group advance to the second round. FIFA rankings were used from December 2021 and are updated after each match and can change between the seeding of the first and second rounds. The winner of each match is simulated using ELO (a rating system best known for chess) and the FIFA rankings. Pots are seeded using FIFA rules (no more than one team per continent in each pot, two for Europe) unless this is impossible (most common 17+ UEFA teams qualify for round two), in which case it will ignore continental restrictions (only really a problem for the second round.)
The first round features the following number of teams: 12 CAF (Africa), 12 AFC (Asia), 8 CONCACAF (North America), 7 CONMEBOL (South America), 1 OFC (Oceania), 22 UEFA (Europe), and two play-off winners. Qualifying rounds were designed to evenly distribute teams into group stages which look as similar as possible to the current setup - the biggest place this varies is in North America. A preliminary round is also run for the lowest ranked teams in each continent.
The preliminary round features the highest ranked unqualified team in each continental region, except for South America (8th placed) and Oceania (runner up). These matches are then drawn randomly with two teams receiving a bye.
Simulate Again!
Qualifying Rounds
1 Switzerland 222 Turkey 143 Cyprus 104 Iceland 85 Latvia 3
1 Portugal 192 Russia 163 Bosnia & Herzegovina 124 Belarus 85 Andorra 1
1 Hungary 182 Denmark 163 Albania 104 North Macedonia 95 San Marino 0
1 Netherlands 222 Northern Ireland 143 Serbia 144 Kazakhstan 45 Bulgaria 3
1 France 242 Czech Republic 163 Finland 104 Georgia 95 Liechtenstein 0
1 Belgium 222 Wales 153 Greece 134 Luxembourg 45 Lithuania 4
1 Italy 222 Sweden 193 Norway 124 Armenia 45 Azerbaijan 1
1 Spain 182 Austria 173 Slovakia 144 Montenegro 75 Gibraltar 0
1 England 192 Slovenia 143 Scotland 134 Estonia 95 Malta 1
1 Rep. of Ireland 192 Croatia 193 Ukraine 104 Israel 65 Moldova 4
1 Germany 172 Poland 153 Romania 124 Kosovo 55 Faroe Islands 4
1 Vanuatu 92 New Zealand 93 New Caledonia 54 Samoa 45 Papua New Guinea 1
1 Solomon Islands 122 Tahiti 93 Fiji 44 American Samoa 35 Tonga 1
1 Brazil 442 Argentina 363 Uruguay 254 Chile 245 Colombia 236 Venezuela 227 Bolivia 208 Peru 189 Ecuador 1710 Paraguay 16
1 Jamaica 392 Mexico 313 Haiti 244 Antigua & Barbuda 205 Bermuda 156 Puerto Rico 127 Aruba 108 Montserrat 6
1 USA 362 Curaçao 313 Honduras 254 St. Kitts and Nevis 245 Cuba 126 Barbados 117 US Virgin Isl. 108 Guyana 7
1 Canada 342 Panama 323 Guatemala 274 Suriname 235 British Virgin Isl. 136 Grenada 117 St. Vincent & the Grenadines 108 Dominica 9
1 Costa Rica 362 El Salvador 313 Trinidad & Tobago 274 Nicaragua 275 St. Lucia 116 Cayman Islands 107 Belize 98 Dominican Republic 6
1 Morocco 132 Zambia 103 Libya 94 Botswana 3
1 Egypt 132 Cabo Verde 113 Comoros 54 Niger 3
1 Tunisia 132 Central African Republic 123 Kenya 104 Burundi 0
1 Equatorial Guinea 132 Congo DR 103 Madagascar 94 Liberia 1
1 Ghana 162 Uganda 73 Tanzania 54 Mozambique 4
1 Senegal 152 Congo 103 Malawi 74 Lesotho 3
1 Nigeria 152 Benin 123 Namibia 94 Gambia 0
1 Guinea-Bissau 132 Côte d'Ivoire 103 Sudan 94 São Tomé & Príncipe 3
1 Mali 162 South Sudan 123 Mauritania 44 Togo 3
1 Burkina Faso 122 South Africa 113 Rwanda 74 Sierra Leone 3
1 Cameroon 162 Gabon 113 Ethiopia 44 Angola 3
1 Algeria 182 Zimbabwe 83 Guinea 44 Eswatini 4
1 Australia 302 Kyrgyz Republic 213 Oman 164 Turkmenistan 85 Bhutan 66 Afghanistan 5
1 Saudi Arabia 262 UAE 243 Palestine 134 Tajikistan 135 Maldives 86 Indonesia 3
1 Japan 282 Philippines 163 Kuwait 124 Vietnam 115 Uzbekistan 116 Singapore 7
1 Iraq 242 Iran 213 Jordan 184 Korea DPR 175 Guam 46 Malaysia 2
1 Qatar 282 Bahrain 183 Thailand 144 China PR 125 Myanmar 66 Timor-Leste 5
1 Lebanon 242 Korea Rep. 203 India 184 Syria 145 Hong Kong 46 Sri Lanka 3
OFC Final

Vanuatu def.

New Zealand
Intercontinental Playoffs

Peru def.

Oman

Serbia def.

Côte d'Ivoire

Peru def.

Honduras

Serbia def.

New Zealand